Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Cropping and Land Use Pattern in Ramanathapuram District: Markov Chain Approach Using Machine Learning

With the advancement of the green revolution, a drastic change has been witnessed in the agricultural sector in India. A cropping pattern is defined as a combination of crops that are grown in a particular geographical area. A change in the cropping pattern and land use pattern means a change in the proportion of area under different crops. This study examines the shifts in cropping patterns and land use patterns in several regions is crucial for a much better insight into the agricultural development method. The study was conducted in the Ramanathapuram district, which comprises eleven administrative blocks. Four blocks - Thiruvadanai, Mandapam, Muthukulathur, and Kamuthi were selected for the study. Time series data on the area under different crops grown in these districts from the period between 2004-2013 and 2014-23 were collected from publications of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ramanathapuram. The results reveal significant changes in both land use patterns and crop stability between two periods: 2004-2013 (Period I) and 2014-2023 (Period II). Forest retention dropped sharply from 89% to 18%, with large transitions to non-agricultural uses, while barren land retention decreased from 96% to 11%. Pasture retention fell from 91% to 28%, reflecting reduced grazing areas. Conversely, the retention of culturable wasteland increased to 100%, and land under tree crops showed improved stability. In terms of cropping pattern, paddy remained the most stable crop, with retention rates of 72% and 76% in Periods I and II, respectively. Markov chain analysis of land use transitions, explains where each type of land use in the first column can transition to other types of land uses over time. Each row sums to 1, indicating a total probability of 100% for each land use category transitioning to all possible categories, including itself. Crops like sorghum and green gram showed instability during the first period, but sorghum's stability improved in the second period, while green gram continued to be unstable. This indicates that the cropping pattern and land use pattern of the region move towards diversification. These findings highlight urbanization pressures, intensified agricultural activities, and shifts in crop choice, offering valuable insights into land management strategies and developmental trends in the district. Land use regulations should focus on protecting forests, and sustainable practices must support small and marginal farmers in adapting to these changes.